Expanding SubRegional Timber Supply (SRTS) Model to Western US
The goal of this project is to extend and adapt SRTS to timber supply contexts in the Western United States. Phase 1 focuses on model updates and enhancements, including exploratory FIA data analysis using the FIADB-API, generation of typical SRTS input data, and development of separate growth and mortality estimates. Phase 2 focuses on addressing pertinent research questions through scenario analysis, particularly by evaluating forest and market dynamics in response to disturbance events such as drought and wildfire.
An Economic Model of Hardwood Management and Markets in the Southern Appalachian Region (SAR)
We build a landscape-scale harvest allocation model that considers forests, management, and markets in the southern Appalachia. Specifically, the model integrates FVS outputs into a linear programming framework, with the objective of allocating each stand’s acreage among management options to maximize discounted net value over a 50-year period, subject to land-balance and exogenous demand constraints. As a thought experiment, the model allows us to examine shifts in management strategies across a range of biochar prices and production costs.
Economics of Potential Alternative Oak Management Practice in the Southern Appalachia
To examine the economics of the potential management intervention for improved oak management at a landscape level, we simulate a hypothetical management intervention in mixed oak forests in the southern Appalachia section of North Carolina. Specifically, we use Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) conditions and tree data in Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) to simulate two alternative management scenarios: a) no management, and b) management i.e., removal of prolific oak competitors. Results indicate that the management intervention has the potential to enhance the timber value of stands by promoting growth of oaks, generate higher benefits, and counteract mesophication of oak forests. Additionally, the change in present value of residual sawtimber attributed to management intervention is positive throughout the projection horizon and is highest in the next 20-30 years.
Dissertation (Chapter 4): https://www.lib.ncsu.edu/resolver/1840.20/45570
Management, Markets, and Mesophication: An Empirical Exploration of Oak Forests in the Southeastern US
This paper primarily uses the Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) database to perform an empirical analysis that: a) examines the role of exploitative high-grading harvest practice in driving mesophication; and b) assesses on-site characteristics (including amenities) and market signal (price) driving the choice of harvest practice in oak forests of the Southeastern US. We use results from this empirical analysis to estimate willingness-to-accept (WTA) compensation for forest landowners to forgo high-grading to reduce mesophication transitions. Our analysis shows that high-grading has a significant and positive association with mesophication on harvested sites. Further, the random utility-based harvest choice model reveals that amenities and timber outputs have a complementary effect on the choice of high-grading; we estimate the willingness-to-accept (WTA) value at $7.62 per thousand board feet, or $9.23 per acre on average across the region.
Preprint: https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.5166393